June 26, 2009

South Plains Cotton Update 6-26-2009

I went to Big Spring on Wednesday for the final Farm Bill Informational meeting I have been asked to present. My observations from that trip, as well as the discussion this morning at the Plains Cotton Advisory group meeting, are that the condition of the crop is all over the place. I continue to get input from all sources that say the same thing. Excellent cotton sits right across the road from poor or even non-existent cotton. We have also heard reports that some cotton went in as "ghost" acres behind failed cotton. I don't want to offend anyone who has done that, but maybe you could explain to me what you are thinking. My email address is included. The more common practice is still to come back in behind zeroed out cotton acres with milo, because of the timing and cost.

The export shipping numbers continue to look positive, but it was brought up this morning that this week's sales numbers included a switch from China to Turkey of 6,600 running bales. That's a good indication that at least some of the cotton reported as sold is actually going into overseas warehouses on consignment. This is more evidence to support the theory that I have that 2008-09 exports will continue to rise at the expense of 2009-10 sales.

Prices continued to slip this week in both the futures markets and the cash markets. According to the USDA Weekly Cotton Market Review, cash market cotton averaged 96 points lower than last week. The December 2009 cotton contract on the ICE actually closed up 46 points today compared to last Friday at 5684. Not nearly enough to reverse the recent downtrend we are on, but it's a start.

For more information on cotton marketing be sure to check out Dr. John Robinson's weekly cotton marketing newsletter by clicking on Market Outlook under the Resources drop down list from the Extension Ag Eco website agecoext.tamu.edu. Also, to listen to recordings of the Ag Market Network conference calls, as well as weekly commentary from Mike Stevens, go to AgMarketNetwork.net.

Remember to tune in every Thursday at 1:30 p.m. for the South Plains Cotton Market Update live on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.


June 19, 2009

South Plains Cotton Update 6-19-09

I missed writing last week, as I was attending the Deming High Class of '79 and '80 thirty year reunion. Some of us are really getting old! There wasn't much to say last week about the crop condition anyway. I was stuck in the office most of the time and we are in the mode where we're really not sure just what will be replanted, abandoned or planted to something else.

It has started raining in a more widespread fashion lately. But with the rains have come high winds, dust storms and hail. Since the first of June, most of the growing areas have received and inch or more, especially with the showers last night and today. If research blocks are any indication of losses, a lot of cotton has been lost. However, I do not believe the growers as a whole have been hit nearly as hard as our researchers based in Lubbock. Producers are going to start thinking twice before agreeing to have a research block on their farms (just kidding).

I do believe some of the best looking cotton around the Lubbock area is the furrow irrigated and the drip irrigated that was pre-watered with poly pipe. Because of the cool temps we had early, much of the sprinkle irrigated cotton got off to a very slow start. Warm weather this week has really perked that crop up as well. Some fields however, have skippy stands due to the slow start and probably won't recover their full potential.

Export shipments of upland cotton were good again this week. The current pace should guarantee meeting the USDA estimate of 12.7 million bales and maybe even 13 million. I would expect that any increases in the exports this year will likely come at the expense of the 09/10 crop as they did in the last estimate. World demand will continue to be sluggish until economies around the globe improve.

December futures prices were down and up and down again this week. The market seems to be seeking direction as the 9- and 18-day moving averages have crossed 3 times in the past 4 weeks. The 18-day average crossed the 40-day average today and if that actually means anything at all (which I'm not sure it does), then we can expect lower prices. Or it could just mean that oil, gas and all the grains except canola and oats were down today also. I'm not sure what it means, but the dollar was down today also. I think that I should just leave the market forecasts to someone smarter than me.

For more information on cotton marketing be sure to check out Dr. John Robinson's weekly cotton marketing newsletter by clicking on Market Outlook under the Resources drop down list from the Extension Ag Eco website agecoext.tamu.edu. Also, to listen to recordings of the Ag Market Network conference calls, as well as weekly commentary from Mike Stevens, go to AgMarketNetwork.net.

Remember to tune in every Thursday at 1:30 p.m. for the South Plains Cotton Market Update live on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.

Educational programs of the Texas AgriLife Extension Service are open to all people without regard to race, color, sex, disability, religion, age, or national origin. The Texas A&M University System, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the County Commissioners Courts of Texas Cooperating


June 5, 2009

South Plains Cotton Update 6-5-09

The biggest news this week from the Texas South Plains cotton patch is widespread rainfall and the final planting date for full insurance coverage on cotton. Today, June 5th is the final date Lubbock area farmers can plant cotton and receive the full coverage that was elected on their crop insurance policies. June 10th is the date for the more southern counties. As we approached the final planting date, thunderstorms frequented the High Plains almost nightly. At my house just north of Shallowater, we received an inch of rain in 3 nightly storms. According to the West Texas Mesonet operated by Texas Tech, 14 locations have received an inch or more of rain since the first of June, but none have received more than 2 inches. The area receiving 1-2 inches this week are all over the place, ranging from Tulia and McLean in the north to San Angelo in the south and Amherst in the west to Paducah in the east. Just down the road from all those locations were rain gauges that received less than half an inch for the week.

Export shipments were good again this week, with a total of 337,200 running bales shipped the week ending 5/28/09. Total export sales for the 2008-09 marketing year are at about 13.5 million 480-lb. bales, which should be sufficient to reach the USDA estimate on 12.5 million. Weekly shipments need to remain at about 208,000 running bales per week to make that mark. A new estimate comes out next Wednesday, June 10th and some expect USDA to increase export expectations.

December cotton closed down 128 for the week at 5957, unable to maintain a close above 60 cents. The market did reach a high of 6263 on Tuesday, but was could not hold upward momentum. Cotton traded primarily on a mixed bag of fundamentals this week, but did not seem to be overly influenced by oil, which continues its march upward, climbing $20/barrel over the last 7 weeks (July 2009 ICE contract).

For more information on cotton marketing be sure to check out Dr. John Robinson?s weekly cotton marketing newsletter by clicking on Market Outlook under the Resources drop down list from the Extension Ag Eco website agecoext.tamu.edu. Also, to listen to recordings of the Ag Market Network conference calls, as well as weekly commentary from Mike Stevens, go to AgMarketNetwork.net.

The next live Ag Market Network will be at 7:30 a.m., June 12th. Speakers are scheduled to be: Mike Stevens - Swiss Financial Services
Dr. John Robinson - Texas A & M - Extension Economist - Cotton Marketing
Dr. Carl Anderson - Texas A & M - Professor Extension Specialist Emeritus
Dr. O. A. Cleveland - Miss. State University - Professor Emeritus
Pat McClatchy - Ag Market Network - Moderator

Remember to tune in every Thursday at 1:30 p.m. for the South Plains Cotton Market Update live on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.


May 29, 2009

South Plains Cotton Update 5-29-2009

The bi-weekly meetings of the South Plains Cotton group started this week and as is usual when the growing season starts out as dry as this one there was a lot of sad singing and slow marching. A good number of County Extension Agents were there this week in addition to the usual cotton industry reps and Research and Extension folks. Representation was fairly widespread across the region and the story was the same everywhere. The dryland acres are too dry to get a stand of cotton up, except for very small pockets randomly distributed across the South Plains. Even many of the areas that show to have received sufficient moisture looking at the TTU Mesonet data don?t have adequate planting moisture because the 2-2.5 inches of rain may have fallen in only 15 or 20 minutes with hardly any of it actually soaking in.

The irrigated cotton acres from Lubbock north are pretty much all planted and only a small percentage has been lost to hail. One of the bright spots to no storms is no hail (or tornadoes). Most pivots seemed to be getting turned on almost immediately after planting. With the cool nights we have been having, that presents the potential for seedling disease problems. So far our plant pathologists haven?t detected widespread problems. At least irrigation energy cost should be lower this year with natural gas nearby futures trading around $4 as compared to $12 this same time last year.

On the marketing side of things it looks like we may have seen an end to the 2 month long uptrend this week, but on the positive side, it appears to be moving mostly sideways now. With a December futures price of around 60 cents, there really aren?t any good opportunities to set a floor above loan for the new crop. The best alternative still seems to be forward contracting loan equities. I?m not sure if there are any current offers still out there, but a couple of weeks ago they were at 4 cents, which according to our budgets would generate positive returns to land and management. I have also heard of a lot of producers going the pool route this year, either with cooperatives or some of the merchant premium pools.

Export shipments, although down from last week, were still sufficient to meet the current USDA estimate of 12.5 million bales at 283,800 total running bales. Currently USDA is only forecasting 910,000 acres of abandonment. If it stays dry here, we will probably have more than that just on the South Plains. Add the Coastal Bend, which has already zeroed out quite a few acres and the Mid-South and Delta, where it is flooding and supply could be tight. We still need revived demand to turn this thing around in a substantial way. As oil has been on the way up recently, cotton has not followed, so maybe cotton is trading on its own fundamentals for a change.

For more information on cotton marketing be sure to check out Dr. John Robinson?s weekly cotton marketing newsletter by clicking on Market Outlook under the Resources drop down list from the Extension Ag Eco website agecoext.tamu.edu. Also, to listen to recordings of the Ag Market Network conference calls, as well as weekly commentary from Mike Stevens, go to AgMarketNetwork.net.

Remember to tune in every Thursday at 1:30 p.m. for the South Plains Cotton Market Update live on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.


May 23, 2009

South Plains Cotton Update 5-23-09

South Plains Cotton Update - Saturday, May 23, 2009

I've been travelling a lot the last two weeks, so now is a good time to sit down and give a little update on the South Plains cotton crop. I was in Austin all last week. Not much cotton around there but there sure are plenty of lawyers. We did take a side trip to Taylor in the Blacklands to look at some calves. Not much cotton there either, mostly corn. The little bit of cotton we saw looked good however. They had more rain than us but really needed some more. I think they got it over the weekend. We are still dry today. According to my buddy "Monsoon Matt" we have a 50% chance today. I sure hope the little shower we had this afternoon isn't all we are going to get.

Looking at the Texas Tech Mesonet confirms that the area south and west of Lubbock is still dry. Since this is the area where much of the dryland cotton is grown, we probably have a million acres in jeopardy right now. The final planting date for full insurance coverage is rapidly approaching and as we have learned in the past, there is no such thing as prevented planting from being too dry. So, planters will be running soon to get the crop "dusted in" before the deadline if this weekend's storms don't bring sufficient rain. The only remaining question is if the cotton seed companies' shared risk programs are enough for farmers to plant more expensive seed with the genetic traits they would want if it makes, or pull a brown bag out of the barn to keep costs down.

The market seemed to stall this week; with the only explanation I heard being the release of Chinese reserves. We talked about the Chinese during the late fall and winter period when they were putting cotton into reserve to help boost prices paid to farmers. At that time, conventional wisdom was that the stocks would start coming out again when prices increased enough to endanger Chinese textile mill profits. I guess the action this week by the Chinese government tells us what that level is. At 60 cents we really don't have a high enough price to lock in an option based floor above loan, so just as we have been doing all year on our budgets, we will continue to try and produce this crop for loan value. I have heard of some pretty decent forward contract equity offers lately, so now would be a good time to get in touch with your regular merchant and see what's up.

For more information on cotton marketing be sure to check out Dr. John Robinson's weekly cotton marketing newsletter by clicking on Market Outlook under the Resources drop down list from the Extension Ag Eco website agecoext.tamu.edu. Also, listen to recordings of the Ag Market Network conference calls, as well as weekly commentary from Mike Stevens, at AgMarketNetwork.net.

Remember to tune in every Thursday at 1:30 p.m. for the South Plains Cotton Market Update live on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.


May 8, 2009

South Plains Cotton Update 5-8-09

My travels this week took me to Coyanosa, Texas. For those not up on small Texas towns, that is out in the Far West Extension District 6 at a point right in the middle of Pecos, Monahans and Fort Stockton. I headed down through Seminole and Kermit to get there and came back through Midland and Lamesa. Saw a lot of dryland cotton acreage bedded up and ready to go, but no planters running. Some pre-watering is still in progress on irrigated acres, but planters were running in all areas where beds had been watered and prepared. Still have not had enough rain in the dryland country to get too excited about planting in dry dirt.

Last year's cotton crop left a bad taste in the mouth of many area growers and some are still hoping for alternatives. I have heard a lot more people saying they will be planting sunflowers and other such crops on as many acres as possible. However, that probably won't have a significant affect on the total number of cotton acres in the area, since the only thing that could substantially reduce cotton acres, which is grain sorghum, really doesn't have a high enough price right now to entice any acres out of cotton. I think we will have about the same number of acres planted this year as last. That only leaves abandonment as the big variable in production.

It is dry right now, but not so dry that a good 1-2 inch area-wide rain would turn everyone's outlook around. We've had a lot of lingering moisture over the last couple of weeks, just no actual rain. For irrigated fields with good moisture that have already been planted, yesterday's high of 100 degrees in Lubbock should get this crop off to a rapid start. By the way, it was 106 in Coyanosa. Minimum soil temperatures across the region range from the upper 60's to the mid 70's on bare soil at the 20 cm depth (8 inches for the rest of us). Feels like cotton weather to me.

The market this week continued it's 9-week upward trend, up 266 on the nearby to close at 5986 and up 247 on the December new-crop to close at 6237. A weaker dollar and positive news about the economic recovery helped fuel buying. We need to watch closely now for an opportunity to lock in a floor on the new crop, since the current U.S. price is now substantially higher than the average world price and most importantly, higher than the price in India. For a very good analysis of what happened in the market this week, go back and listen to Mike Stevens' comments on www.agmarketnetwork.net.

The monthly World Ag Supply/Demand Estimate (WASDE) comes out Tuesday, May 12th. It will have the first look at what USDA is projecting for U.S. and World supply and demand for cotton in the 2009/10 marketing year. The panel members of the Ag Market Network will have a full commentary on the report during the conference on Thursday.

The Ag Market Network Conference will be Thursday, May 14th at 7:30 in the morning. If you can't get by Posey Gin to listen live over the phone or get it on the radio, you can listen to it over the Internet, either live or recorded once it is posted, at www.agmarketnetwork.net. This month Jarral Neeper, President of Calcot, will be the special guest speaker along with the regular panel of Carl Anderson, John Robinson, O.A. Cleveland and Mike Stevens with Pat McClatchy as moderator.

Remember to tune in every Thursday at 1:30 p.m. for the South Plains Cotton Market Update live on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.


May 1, 2009

South Plains Cotton Update 5-1-2009

South Plains Cotton Update - Friday, May 1st, 2009

First, a little update on the wheat situation as it affects cotton acreage. Visiting with insurance adjusters and farmers this week has led me to believe that less of the wheat will be destroyed than previously thought. There are two reasons for decisions to keep freeze-damaged wheat fields. First are the acreages with CRC insurance. The $8.77 planting-time price is a great incentive to carry a crop with less than 100% damage to harvest and "prove" the low yield. Second is the lack of enough custom balers in the area to get this entire crop harvested before it matures beyond the point of being worth very much as hay. That could mean more milo or even summer fallow than cotton.

Planting is in full swing across the South Plains. As I traveled the area doing Farm Bill informational meetings, I noticed cotton planters running around every community that I passed through. There are still quite a few planters at the barn getting ready to go. I figure most will be in the fields next week since there is nowhere else to go with all the events cancelled for the H1N1 Virus. (I refuse to call it the swine flu out of respect for our pork producers.)

A little update on the Farm Bill. I have added a link to the ACRE Decision Aid to the side bar on the blog page. There is also a link on the South Plains Profit website. Some of you who have some farms with only livestock on them will want to check out the decision aid before the final sign up date. According to county USDA-FSA staff I talked to this week, they will be adding a provision to make ACRE payments to people with wheat for hay and grazing and corn for silage. I'll have more information as it becomes available. Also, we will be updating the SURE Payment Estimator when we get all the details on the bump that was added in the stimulus package. The SURE Payment Estimator is also now linked in the blog sidebar and on the South Plains Profit website.

Rains have still been very spotty and frequently come with hail and tornadoes. Pre-irrigating is still in full swing for those field that will be planted in mid to late May. The western side of the South Plains still remains very dry for the most part. The Rolling Plains have seen the most moisture in the area. I have seen a lot of new field practices this year as more farmers look for ways to cut costs while maintaining yields. I guess time will tell how well they all work.

We have been talking about the uptrend that the ICE Cotton Futures contract has been on since mid-March and to watch for a close above 57 cents. Well it happened today in a big way. December closed at 5990 today up from 5638 last Friday. We are much closer to that magic 65 cents where can possibly set a price floor above loan. The other significant part of this price rise is that any old crop cotton that is still in the loan should be sold if at all possible. Today's close of the nearby contract at 5652 is nearly fifteen cents above the AWP, which should give a good opportunity to redeem loan cotton with some equity.

Remember to tune in every Thursday at 1:30 p.m. for the South Plains Cotton Market Update live on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950. The Ag Market Network has been scheduled for May 14th .


April 24, 2009

South Plains Cotton Update 4-24-09

South Plains Cotton Update - Friday, April 24, 2009

The cotton-growing season has officially started as planters have moved into some fields to put the first seeds into the ground. That means its time for me to start back with reports from the field as I travel the South Plains. I will be posting something each week related to the progress and condition of the crop as observed from my travels during the week and as I prepare for my weekly radio show with Eddie Griffis during AgTalk on FoxTalk 950 in Lubbock.

Besides the appearance of a few cotton planters this week, the big story remains to be what will happen with the wheat crop. From Lubbock north the wheat had freeze damage from 40-100 percent. Most of the stuff that was clearly ruined has either been plowed up or swathed for baling. Much of that acreage will probably go to cotton. The fields that are kept will probably only yield 10-20 bushels and will likely go to summer fallow unless we receive substantial moisture. In which case they may go to milo in June.

Speaking of rainfall, the eastern side of the South Plains received from 1-6 inches during the storms last week. Most locations received beneficial rain east of a line from Snyder in the south to Anton in the north. The most rain received over the two-day period last Thursday and Friday was Tulia with nearly 5 and one-half inches. Most areas received closer to the 1-inch mark, but that was still a great help to the pre-watering of beds, which is ongoing.

Warm weather this week has brought the planters out, with highs in the upper 80's to the mid 90's and soil temperatures ranging from 60 to 65 degrees at most locations. I haven't tried the "pants down" method of checking soil temperatures to see if it is warm enough to plant, but with the 5-day forecast we have, it is probably a safe bet from Lubbock south.

Most of lasts year's crop has moved out of farmer hands and down the marketing chain. The catastrophe in the market last year took away most opportunities for forward contracting with a merchant. Right now we are still using loan value in our budgets, but the current up-trend in the market has us watching for an opportunity to set a price floor that may help make this crop profitable. I am of the opinion that we are no where near out of the financial downturn and that there will continue to be significant pressure to lower cotton prices as the season progresses. But that's just my opinion.

Remember to tune in every Thursday at 1:30 p.m. for the South Plains Cotton Market Update live on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.


Educational programs of the Texas AgriLife Extension Service are open to all people without regard to race, color, sex, disability, religion, age, or national origin. The Texas A&M University System, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the County Commissioners Courts of Texas Cooperating


November 15, 2008

South Plains Cotton Update 11-14-208

The Lubbock classing office has now graded 361,344 bales for the season and is averaging 40-45 thousand more every day. Lamesa has classed 118,634, with a daily average of 10-15 thousand. Not much has changed in the overall quality of the grades since last week, except that the bark has gotten even worse at Lubbock, averaging 44.1% this week. The bark at Lamesa actually improved this week, coming in at only 39%, compared to 50.4% last week. Micronaire continued to decline at both locations. The average mike at Lubbock was 3.66 and at Lamesa it was 3.89. Lubbock had 35.8% of bales with a low mike discount this past week and now stands at 29.7% with a mike of 3.4 or lower for the season.

Weather continues to cooperate, except for the frequent elevation of the wind speed higher than we would like. Rain has been and will be absent from the forecast for some time. The dew has normally dried off during the time it takes to service machines in the morning and has allowed most to work well past sunset every evening.

Export sales dropped back down to 134,200 running bales for the week ending 11/06/08. The largest net increases in sales were for Indonesia (43,100), Turkey (23,400) and China (20,400). Shipments were adequate, with 223,900 running bales exported to China (76,700), Mexico (34,400), Turkey (29,200) and Indonesia (13,600). Reports we get from merchants are that the cotton going to Indonesia is mostly low-grade (40-43 cent loan value). So far this marketing year we are right on track to make the 13 million bale USDA estimate, but the slowdown in sales has most in the trade worried about the future. Hopefully sales will pick up once the market finds the bottom and starts to rebound.

The latest USDA estimate of world supply and demand came out Monday, November 10th. Exports remained unchanged from last month on the assumption that the U.S. will gain market share of declining world consumption. (huh?) U.S. production is decreased 180,000 bales since October. One hundred sixty thousand of that is from the High Plains of Texas and they are still too high on that number. But they still have at least two more months to get it right.

A new life-of-contract low 3670 was set for the December 2008 contract at the ICE on Wednesday, the same day as the Ag Market Network conference call. Mike Stevens set the tone of the call early on by calling attention to the fact that the current price of the December contract was half way to zero from the price we had the first of August. I still maintain that this market has many striking similarities to the 2001 season. The lowest closing price that year occurred on October 25th (6 weeks after the 9/11 attack) at 2852. Next week will be 6 weeks following "Black Week" when the DJIA lost 1874 points or 18% of its value, the largest one-week loss ever. I really don't look for the December contract to recover significantly before first notice day. We will probably start looking to March for direction soon.

For more information on cotton marketing be sure to check out Dr. John Robinson's weekly cotton marketing newsletter by clicking on Market Outlook under the Resources drop down list from the Extension Ag Eco website agecoext.tamu.edu. Also, to listen to recordings of the Ag Market Network conference calls, as well as weekly commentary from Mike Stevens, go to AgMarketNetwork.net. The next Ag Market Network conference call will be December 16th at 7:30 a.m.

Remember to tune in every Thursday at 1:30 p.m. for the South Plains Cotton Market Update live on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950. There will be no report next week, either on the radio, email or web as I will be in Monterrey, Mexico all week. Hasta la vista!

Educational programs of the Texas AgriLife Extension Service are open to all people without regard to race, color, sex, disability, religion, age, or national origin. The Texas A&M University System, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the County Commissioners Courts of Texas Cooperating

November 7, 2008

South Plains Cotton Update 11-07-2008

We are picking up the pace of harvest. The Lubbock classing office has graded another 122,328 bales since my report last Friday. Daily receipts topped 30,000 bales Wednesday. Lamesa added another 40,649 bales as well. Lubbock has an average staple of 36.94 so far this week with strength of 29.91 and the predominant color of 31, leaf 3 and 4. The average staple at Lamesa has been 36.35 for the week with the predominant color of 21 and 31, leaf 3 and strength of 29.4. The part of the grade, which concerns me most right now, is leaf, micronaire and bark. Micronaire has declined each week since we started and bark has increased. Average micronaire at Lubbock so far this week has been 3.85 with Thursday's 27,638 bales running 3.74. The same weakness in quality can be seen looking at the percent of bales containing bark, which was 21.4% for the week and 32.2% for the day. Compare that to last year at this same time when the average grade was color 21, leaf 2, staple 35.8, mike 4.3, strength 29.0 and only 3.4% bark. Staple and strength are the only things holding up to last year's standard. We are also well behind last year's bale count, which was over 600,000 bales compare to the current season's 155,929.

Weather, except for Wednesday's high winds, has been somewhat favorable. Most cotton that was sprayed before the big freeze is now in the process of being harvested. If we don't get some hard freezing weather soon, we may have a break in the action while we wait for the crop to dry down some more.

Export sales rebounded somewhat this week with China leading the way with a net of 47,000 running bales of new sales. There were no new sales of Pima this week, but net upland sales were back up to 241,500 running bales. Shipments dropped back below the necessary 240,000 bales to only 192,300. Again, China was the leading destination at 62,100. Hopefully, that means last week's cancellations by China were just to get more favorable price terms on cotton still to be shipped.

The latest USDA estimate of world supply and demand comes out Monday, November 10th. I believe that the current pace of exports will justify keeping exports the same this month after last month's big drop. Surely they will lower the crop size for Texas this month. Early harvest results on the High Plains indicate there is no way the crop will be 3.57 million bales and classing data from the Corpus Christi Classing Office shows only 525,000 bales from the region expected to make 630,000 bales in the last estimate. The final Texas number could easily be one-half million bales short of last month's 5.3 million forecast.

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Well, I have avoided it as long as I can, but I guess I have to talk about price somewhere in this post. The December 2008 futures contract at the ICE lost 222 points this week, setting a new life-of-contract low of 4200 today. Forty-two cents is important because that is the lowest price we have seen on the nearby contract after rising from the depths of the 2001 marketing year when we reached 29 cents. If 42 cents does not hold as a low next week, I really don't have any idea how low this market can actually go. I remember 2001 very well. I started the year with over a thousand bales of cotton in storage and everyone said the market was headed back up. We lost over $50 per bale before we could unload them in the free fall.

For more information on cotton marketing be sure to check out Dr. John Robinson's weekly cotton marketing newsletter by clicking on Market Outlook under the Resources drop down list from the Extension Ag Eco website agecoext.tamu.edu. Also, to listen to recordings of the Ag Market Network conference calls, as well as weekly commentary from Mike Stevens, go to AgMarketNetwork.net. The next Ag Market Network conference call will be November 12th at 7:30 a.m.

That's your South Plains cotton update for Friday, November 7th. This is Jay Yates, Risk Management Specialist with the Texas AgriLife Extension Service. Remember to tune in every Thursday at 1:00 p.m. for the South Plains Cotton Market Update live on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.