South Plains Cotton Update 6-26-2009
I went to Big Spring on Wednesday for the final Farm Bill Informational meeting I have been asked to present. My observations from that trip, as well as the discussion this morning at the Plains Cotton Advisory group meeting, are that the condition of the crop is all over the place. I continue to get input from all sources that say the same thing. Excellent cotton sits right across the road from poor or even non-existent cotton. We have also heard reports that some cotton went in as "ghost" acres behind failed cotton. I don't want to offend anyone who has done that, but maybe you could explain to me what you are thinking. My email address is included. The more common practice is still to come back in behind zeroed out cotton acres with milo, because of the timing and cost.
The export shipping numbers continue to look positive, but it was brought up this morning that this week's sales numbers included a switch from China to Turkey of 6,600 running bales. That's a good indication that at least some of the cotton reported as sold is actually going into overseas warehouses on consignment. This is more evidence to support the theory that I have that 2008-09 exports will continue to rise at the expense of 2009-10 sales.
Prices continued to slip this week in both the futures markets and the cash markets. According to the USDA Weekly Cotton Market Review, cash market cotton averaged 96 points lower than last week. The December 2009 cotton contract on the ICE actually closed up 46 points today compared to last Friday at 5684. Not nearly enough to reverse the recent downtrend we are on, but it's a start.
For more information on cotton marketing be sure to check out Dr. John Robinson's weekly cotton marketing newsletter by clicking on Market Outlook under the Resources drop down list from the Extension Ag Eco website agecoext.tamu.edu. Also, to listen to recordings of the Ag Market Network conference calls, as well as weekly commentary from Mike Stevens, go to AgMarketNetwork.net.
Remember to tune in every Thursday at 1:30 p.m. for the South Plains Cotton Market Update live on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.

