South Plains Cotton Update

Jay Yates, Extension Risk Management Specialist at the Lubbock Agricultural Research and Extension Center.

Today is the final planting date for full crop insurance coverage for cotton planted in Bailey, Castro, Lamb, Parmer, Swisher and all counties to the North. Most of our High Plains counties have until June 5th and Lynn and Dawson counties have until the 10th of June. The Rolling Plains has until either the 10th in the north and the 20th in the south. The problem remains wet fields and a seven-day forecast with a good chance of showers every day. We also have not had sufficient heat or sunshine to get this crop started. The month of May has not seen a single day in the 90's or above. Accumulated growing degree days for the month of May range from 220 at Lamesa, to 198 at Lubbock and 120 at Etter.

Rainfall since my last report has ranged from 1 to 3 inches across a wide area, with a significant amount of hail south and west of Lubbock. Some hail was even reported to have killed cotton that wasn't emerged. First the heavy rains washed the soil off of the sprouting cotton, then the hail came and beat it off. For the month of May all sites, except for Hereford, in the West Texas Mesonet received more than 2 inches of rain. Twenty-seven reported more than 4 inches and Seminole topped the charts with 8.53 inches and we still have one more day with a 40% chance of thunderstorms to go.

Cotton planting in the South Plains Extension District made tremendous progress last week. The average percent planted across the Southern High Plains nearly doubled, increasing from 29% the prior week to 57% at the end of last week. Most farmers I talk to are only 4 to 5 good days from finishing.

I spent the holiday weekend in the Seymour area and it looks like wheat harvest got started in a big way on Tuesday. Memorial Day morning the town was filled with combines and grain trucks, the next day everything was gone and that evening the trucks were all lined up at the elevators. I'm sure they would like to see a good stretch of dry weather the next couple of weeks as well.

The FARM Assistance strategic analysis program can help you make long-term decisions like whether or not to buy or lease the adjoining farm. And if you buy it, what repayment terms can you afford? Decisions like these are what the FARM Assistance system was designed for. Call me at 806-746-6101 to make an appointment.

New York futures closed 124 points higher on the July contract for the week at 5038 from 4914 last Wednesday. The December contract closed 157 points higher at 5600 up from 5443. The December contract close above the 9, 18 and 40-day moving averages, while the July contract closed above both the 9 and 18-day averages. Both contracts are firmly in an uptrend, but don't look for them to go too much higher in the short-term, because we still have a lot of cotton to move.

Due to the Memorial Day Holiday, there is no export report today. The report will be out tomorrow. Just remember we need to ship over 412,000 running bales of all cotton per week for the next 11 weeks to make the current USDA estimate of 13.25 million statistical bales. The cotton is already sold for delivery this year, it remains to be seen if it will all get shipped in time.
Certified stocks climbed to 708,347 bales in delivery point warehouses, with an additional 612 issued by USDA and none awaiting review. CCC upland cotton loan stocks dropped dramatically ahead of the change in calculation of the AWP that occurs every year at this time. The 16th and 17th of May were the final, and only days including in this inventory report, before the new AWP went into effect. The coops made a major move, redeeming 78% of the cotton they had in the loan, reducing their stocks from 4.8 million to only 1.4 million bales. Texas producers, however, only withdrew 9% of the cotton they held individually in the loan, reducing their inventory by only 54,000 bales. The new total stock of upland cotton in the loan now stands at 3,607,567 bales. The fact that the market continued to rise in the face of massive loan redemptions is a good sign that the lows are now in. There is still hope for Texas cotton still in the loan if it has enough time to wait for a good weather scare to run this market up a bit higher.

For more information on cotton marketing be sure to check out Dr. John Robinson's weekly cotton marketing newsletter by clicking on the Cotton Marketing link from the Extension Ag Eco website agecoext.tamu.edu. Also, the Ag Market Network, which aired on May 15th, featuring Carl Anderson and Mike Stevens with special guest speaker Peter Egli of Plexus Cotton Limited, is available for download at agmarketnetwork.net. The next conference call will be on June 13th.

This newsletter is now being posted to tceblogs.tamu.edu/mt/spcu, myspace.com/jayates85 and on DTN Local News Page 7. Of course, you can always reach me at the Lubbock Center at 806-746-6101.

That's your South Plains cotton update for Thursday, May 31st. This is Jay Yates, Risk Management Specialist with Texas Cooperative Extension. Join me each Thursday at this same time right here on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.