South Plains Cotton Update

This week brought warmer temperatures and drier weather and the difference can really be seen in area cotton fields. It's becoming obvious which fields have the most natural resistance to seedling disease because most seed treatments only provide protection for 14 to 21 days according to the experts here at the Experiment Station. Farmers I have talked to say the same thing. Those varieties that rated well for disease resistance in Dr. Wheeler's trials have been holding up well in farmer's fields. Last year's dry weather didn't reveal the weaknesses in some varieties we have seen this year. Just another reason why producers shouldn't put all their eggs in one basket when it comes to variety selection.

USDA is currently in the process of surveying farmers about what they planted this year. For some of our High Plains producers, I'm not sure they can completely answer that question yet. The good cotton looks really good right now, if you don't look at the calendar. Areas where hail or excessive moisture has taken its toll will probably be replanted to milo, but so far producers appear to be in a wait and see mode. We are already running behind on heat units. According to graphs prepared by Dr. Boman for the bi-weekly Plains Cotton Advisory Group last Friday, we are running well behind the long-term average heat unit accumulation for the year. The past few seasons were all above the long-term average by this time in their respective years. The Texas High Plains ET Network has information on heat units, as well as ET rates, for a wide range of locations across the High Plains. The easiest way to reach the website is from the Lubbock Center home page, lubbock.tamu.edu.

I brought up crop disaster assistance last week and wanted to mention the rest of what I didn't have time for in that segment. First we have updated the Crop Disaster Payment Calculator and posted it on the Plains Cotton Growers site (plainscotton.org), the Lubbock Center site (lubbock.tamu.edu) and the South Plains FARM Assistance site (tceblogs.tamu.edu/mt/spcu). If you need an estimate of what your payment will be, go to the year for which you had the disaster, remember, it is either 2005 or 2006, not both. Select the crop that was planted, the county it was in, whether it was irrigated or dryland, verify that it was insured and whether or not it was harvested. You will also need to know the APH yield, the crop insurance indemnity you received, the premium paid and the amount of production counted for insurance purposes, either estimated by the adjuster or actually harvested. The second thing you need to do is be patient. My sources tell me sign-up will not likely occur before mid to late fall, then USDA is required to make payment within 60 days of application. Merry Christmas.

The FARM Assistance strategic analysis program can help you make long-term decisions like whether or not to buy or lease the adjoining farm. And if you buy it, what repayment terms can you afford? Decisions like these are what the FARM Assistance system was designed for. Call me at 806-746-6101 to make an appointment.

New York futures closed 89 points higher on the July contract for the week at 5244 up from 5155 last Wednesday. The December contract closed 70 points higher at 5800 up from 5730. Futures prices remain firmly established in an uptrend that is not likely to slow down until December hits the 60-cent, steel reinforced, concrete ceiling. Both the December and July contracts gapped higher on the open this morning presumably on the excellent export number reported by USDA.

Net Upland sales of 139,700 running bales were sufficient to take us to 110% of projected exports. The primary buyers were China (52,000), Turkey (32,300), Indonesia (11,100), and Pakistan (8,200). Exports of 438,600, a marketing year high, combined with 13,000 running bales of American Pima to give a total shipments number of 451,600. The primary destinations were China (217,900), Turkey (61,500), Pakistan (31,900), Indonesia (22,600), Mexico (22,400), and Thailand (16,100). Net American Pima exports were primarily to Indonesia (4,300), China (3,000), and Pakistan (1,200). This is the first time this marketing year we have actually exceeded the number of bales needed to meet the USDA estimate, which by the way was lowered another 250,000 bales to 13.0 million 480-pound bales.

For more information on cotton marketing be sure to check out Dr. John Robinson's weekly cotton marketing newsletter by clicking on the Cotton Marketing link from the Extension Ag Eco website agecoext.tamu.edu.

For a complete review of the latest World Ag Supply Demand Estimate go to the Ag Market Network website and listen to the recording of Mike Stevens and Carl Anderson giving their take on what the report means to the cotton market. You have go and listen to Dr. Anderson gloat over being right on last month's suggestion to buy 56-cent December calls.

That's your South Plains cotton update for Thursday, June 14th. This is Jay Yates, Risk Management Specialist with Texas Cooperative Extension. Join me each Thursday at this same time right here on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.