South Plains Cotton Update on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950 for Thursday November 15th, 2007.
Jay Yates, Extension Risk Management Specialist at the Lubbock Agricultural Research and Extension Center.
I have not seen a freeze map on the West Texas Mesonet site updated for this morning's freeze yet, but the temperature in Lubbock stayed below freezing for about 4 hours. But, just like the previous two freezes, not much below.Temperature Graph
Harvest continues to progress at a rapid pace with the percent harvested jumping nearly 20% this week, as reported by County Extension Ag Agents. Lubbock County shows the highest percent harvested at 75%, followed by Castro at 70%, then Hale, Crosby and Borden at 65%. The lowest percent harvested is in the Cochran, Yoakum and Mitchell county areas. Crop ratings continue to climb as well with the percent of acres rated poor and very poor declining 9% to only 6% and fields rate good and excellent rose 13% to 70%.
Ginning is progressing as well with the Lubbock classing office standing at 848,328 bales classed as of November 13th and the Lamesa office at 258,702. The average grade so far has been color 21, leaf 2, staple 35.7, mike 4.1, strength 29.5, uniformity 80.6 and only 1.7% bark. Statewide, 2.45 million bales have now been classed. The grades at Lamesa are almost identical.
Many area farmers will be done by Thanksgiving if the weather stays as nice as it has been. Our prayers go out to two of our friends, Josh Keeney and Glenn Schur, both unable to finish harvest without the help of neighbors this year due to unfortunate accidents. We wish you both a speedy recovery. Thanks to all who have helped getting their crops out and to everyone else, be safe out there. The FARM Assistance analysis program can help you make strategic business decisions like whether or not to upgrade your harvest equipment or have the crop custom harvested. And if you buy, what repayment terms can you afford? Decisions like these are what the FARM Assistance program was designed for. Call me at 806-746-6101 to make an appointment. The export report will not be out until tomorrow due to the Veteran's Day Holiday. Look for over 300,000 running bales shipped to meet the new USDA estimate of 16.2 million 480-pound bales. As the season wears on, I look for USDA to readjust the export forecast to keep the number of running bales needed to ship at about 300,000 until we get into Spring. What that means is that every week we are below 300,000 will likely cause USDA to revise the estimate downward in the following month's report. Certified stocks remained steady to slightly higher this week with 622,645 in warehouses, 9,512 decertified, 2,276 bales issued by USDA and 45,047 awaiting review. USDA Loan stocks of Upland cotton increased this week to 4,302,430. ELS stocks also increased to 32,874. After reading last week's market comments in preparing to write this week's comments, I was tempted just to cut and paste the whole thing into the new market update, since nothing has changed. But then I thought about my listeners and realized that y'all are smarter than that and I need to try to find something new to talk about. We have had a new supply/demand report come out since last Thursday. However, since it was on Friday most of you probably already know that USDA is forecasting a new record national yield and TASS is projecting the same for the South Plains at 799 pounds across all irrigated and dryland acres combined. Given the number of 2.5 and 3 bale dryland reports I have heard recently, I have no doubt we will reach that new record. December '07 traded 192 points lower this week closing at 6315 on Wednesday compared to 6507 last Wednesday, still safely within the 62-66 cent trading range established the first of October. This will be the last time we look at Dec '07 for current crop pricing, since we only have 5 trading days, including today, until first notice day and next Thursday is Thanksgiving.Price Chart I will be taking a break and going to see my grandson's in Tucson, oh and I guess my daughter and son-in-law also. December '08 looks like it's trying to fall into a sideways pattern now between 72 and 76. If the price holds at 72 during this current downtrend, I will feel confident that we are in for a rather lengthy ride up and down between 72 and 76. Not good news for option holders, but the stability might allow merchants to offer cash forward contracts at a level better than we have seen in a long time. I'm afraid that the 78-cent Dec '08 we were holding out for to lock in a local cash price of 70 cents may just be a pipe dream now. For more information on cotton marketing be sure to check out Dr. John Robinson's weekly cotton marketing newsletter by clicking on the Cotton Marketing link from the Extension Ag Eco website agecoext.tamu.edu. Also, to listen to recordings of the Ag Market Network conference calls, as well as weekly commentary from Mike Stevens, go to AgMarketNetwork.net. The next teleconference will be Tuesday December 13th at 7:30 a.m. with special guest Peter Egli of Plexus Cotton. That's your South Plains cotton update for Thursday, November 15th. This is Jay Yates, Risk Management Specialist with Texas Cooperative Extension. Join me each Thursday at this same time right here on Ag Talk on Fox Talk 950.
